Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Starting 2026 At Inflation’s Trough

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation’s surprise rise to 1.9% in February was confirmed in Eurostat’s final print, with the underlying monthly impulses broadly aligned at the 2% target.</li>
<li>Energy prices have exploded higher since the US attacked Iran, driving a massive shock that the consensus currently misses. Surprises usually correlate with energy prices. </li>
<li>The ECB should stay hawkishly vigilant, enjoying the good starting place, without actively tightening unless high energy prices persist or second-round effects emerge.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation’s surprise rise to 1.9% in February was confirmed in Eurostat’s final print, with the underlying monthly impulses broadly aligned at the 2% target.
Energy prices have exploded higher since the US attacked Iran, driving a massive shock that the consensus currently misses. Surprises usually correlate with energy prices. 
The ECB should stay hawkishly vigilant, enjoying the good starting place, without actively tightening unless high energy prices persist or second-round effects emerge.


EA: HICP Exploding Out Of 2026 Trough