Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation jumped to 2.52% in March, far above earlier expectations, but below the latest views. Soft goods prices caused the downside news here and in the 2.26% core.</li>
<li>Services inflation is sticky at 3.23%, 22bp less than a year ago. Further energy price rises are set to drive the headline rate above 3% over the next two months.</li>
<li>Downside news to the ECB’s forecast eases hawkish pressure in the short term, raising the likelihood of no change in April. We still expect it to hike rates in June.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation jumped to 2.52% in March, far above earlier expectations, but below the latest views. Soft goods prices caused the downside news here and in the 2.26% core.
Services inflation is sticky at 3.23%, 22bp less than a year ago. Further energy price rises are set to drive the headline rate above 3% over the next two months.
Downside news to the ECB’s forecast eases hawkish pressure in the short term, raising the likelihood of no change in April. We still expect it to hike rates in June.


EA: Soft Goods Ease Hawkish Pressure