EA Serving Inflation Resilience

424 Views01 Mar 2024 21:45

SUMMARY

Flash EA inflation unusually exceeded expectations by only slowing by 0.2pp to 2.58% in February. This outcome matches average forecasts for the month held since Dec-22.
Resilient services inflation only slowed by 5bps to 3.93%, driving the upside surprise in the headline and core inflation rates, with the latter at 3.1%.
The ECB will likely look at headline inflation above this pace at its June meeting, with services at 3.5% in our forecast. We still expect it to delay cuts until September.

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