bullish

EA Serving Inflation Resilience

387 Views01 Mar 2024 13:45
SUMMARY
  • Flash EA inflation unusually exceeded expectations by only slowing by 0.2pp to 2.58% in February. This outcome matches average forecasts for the month held since Dec-22.
  • Resilient services inflation only slowed by 5bps to 3.93%, driving the upside surprise in the headline and core inflation rates, with the latter at 3.1%.
  • The ECB will likely look at headline inflation above this pace at its June meeting, with services at 3.5% in our forecast. We still expect it to delay cuts until September.
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Rising
Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy
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