Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

USD inflation review: Powell has to invent a new measure..

Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

Rakuten Bank - In Japan With 65% Loan Growth

Japan Banks - Near End of Negative Rates BOJ, Deposits with BOJ to See Big Yield Rise, Not Only JGBs

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The incoming inflation data has received more attention and scrutiny as G3 (Fed, BoJ and ECB) policymakers up the ante  </li>
<li>Ideally, the emphasis should be on “trend” or “underlying” inflation, not the monthly data wiggles  </li>
<li>My estimate of the G3 underlying inflation rate is currently hovering around 1.5%-points above the pre-pandemic average     </li>
</ul>


The incoming inflation data has received more attention and scrutiny as G3 (Fed, BoJ and ECB) policymakers up the ante  
Ideally, the emphasis should be on “trend” or “underlying” inflation, not the monthly data wiggles  
My estimate of the G3 underlying inflation rate is currently hovering around 1.5%-points above the pre-pandemic average     


Spotlighting “Underlying” Inflation