Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>MFEA lower-voting ordinary shares are trading at a 33.6% discount relative to the MFEB high-ordinary shares, which seems excessive (and above the 32% average since listing of A-shares).</li>
<li>If the offer for TL5 SM succeeds, MFEA would represent 0.68x the number of MFEB and 6.81x the number of votes of MFEB, thus increased percentage of votes and liquidity.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement of the takeover is 1 September. I target a 25% discount and recommend long 1 MFEA IM/short 1 MFEB IM.</li>
</ul>

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Event-driven Analyst

<ul>
<li>The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. </li>
<li>Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.</li>
<li>PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.</li>
</ul>

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

<ul>
<li>Employment increased ahead of April’s jobs tax hike, and vacancies since then stayed high. Hours have also recovered despite depressed self-employment levels.</li>
<li>Firms appear to be focusing on retention, with bonus payments surging while regular pay growth slows. Nonetheless, wage settlements have been their highest since 2008.</li>
<li>This combination of rising wage deals and falling unemployment looks to be around a cyclical peak in underlying inflation pressures, probably pushing the BoE to hike in June.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>Ong Choo Eng and his son Ong Eng Yaw, together with Roswell Assets, Dymon Asia Private Equity, and Crytalic Star have launched a voluntary Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong (HWAH SP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>The S$0.37/share Offer is a nine-year high and a 27.6% premium to last close. It has not been declared final. </li>
<li>However, it appears not all of the founding members of the company are on the same page. The family fissure became public after the last independent director resigned this month. </li>
</ul>

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>SMC 4QFY22 was in-line with consensus revenue estimates at ¥185bn, but missed at the OP level with ¥52.7bn (10% below consensus) in a now familiar pattern for the sector. </li>
<li>The company’s FY23 guidance was strong projecting revenue of ¥805bn (+4.5% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥265bn (+6.9% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>The problem is that this ignores the typical cyclicality for the company and we believe OP will in fact be down YoY.</li>
</ul>

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>The EA cycle is performing surprisingly well in absolute and even relative terms, with a record pace and consistency of decline in its unemployment rate.</li>
<li>Its change since 4Q19 is much nearer to Norway than the UK and US, let alone languishing Sweden. High vacancies match the recovery, implying it is demand-led. </li>
<li>Further sustained progress in ending ingrained disinflationary expectations should allow the ECB to focus more on this cyclical story. The ECB may not wait long in 2023 before hiking.</li>
</ul>

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>There are 22 deletions for the MSCI Japan Index at the May SAIR. The changes were expected and there is large short buildup on quite a few of the stocks.</li>
<li>Over the last month, the largest increase in shorts as a percentage of passive selling was on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-century-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8053:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Century Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohgo-security-services-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14181:1" rel="noopener">Sohgo Security Services</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>The deletions have underperformed the TOPIX by 22% over the last 6 months and by 10% over the last two months. Position for a bounce post implementation.</li>
</ul>

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a> will soon spin out its Lottery and Keno business, to be called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp (TLC AU)</a>. TAH shares go ex-TLC on 24 May.  </li>
<li>The question is where do they trade. What is in the price? What is not? What are the potential index implications?</li>
<li>This insight provides a grid of index implications and pro-forma valuations (EV/EBITDA, PER, Dividend Yield) for each and both and the combined entity.</li>
</ul>

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faith-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14455:1" rel="noopener">Faith Inc (4295 JP)</a> is a very smallcap contents management and platform business. As a business, one could give it a miss forever, but it is cash-rich. </li>
<li>The company is doing a very large buyback, and for someone who decided they'd be interested, there is a large block for sale. </li>
<li>The thing is... one would have to act quickly and aggressively.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>KDIC is looking to sell around half of its remaining stake in Woori Financial Group (WFG).</li>
<li>This is almost a clean-up trade considering that KDIC had a stake of nearly 18% at the start of 2021 and will now be reduced to a less than 2%.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>

Multiple Countries

EA: UR Beating the Fresh Hawks