EA: UR Beating the Fresh Hawks
153 Views, 11 Jan 2022 00:00
- The EA cycle is performing surprisingly well in absolute and even relative terms, with a record pace and consistency of decline in its unemployment rate.
- Its change since 4Q19 is much nearer to Norway than the UK and US, let alone languishing Sweden. High vacancies match the recovery, implying it is demand-led.
- Further sustained progress in ending ingrained disinflationary expectations should allow the ECB to focus more on this cyclical story. The ECB may not wait long in 2023 before hiking.