Multiple Countries

EA: UR Beating the Fresh Hawks

Macroeconomics
153 Views, 11 Jan 2022 00:00
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • The EA cycle is performing surprisingly well in absolute and even relative terms, with a record pace and consistency of decline in its unemployment rate.
  • Its change since 4Q19 is much nearer to Norway than the UK and US, let alone languishing Sweden. High vacancies match the recovery, implying it is demand-led. 
  • Further sustained progress in ending ingrained disinflationary expectations should allow the ECB to focus more on this cyclical story. The ECB may not wait long in 2023 before hiking.
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Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior... 

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