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EA: Inflation Jumps at the Dec-21 Summit

Macroeconomics
266 Views, 08 Jan 2022 01:24
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Flash EA HICP inflation exceeded expectations again in Dec-21 by rising 10bps to 4.97%. There was a repeat of the upside pressure’s breadth that also infected the “core” .
  • Jumping beyond what we expected to be the peak does not change our view that it will slow sharply in Jan-22 on normalising seasonal weightings and a VAT base effect.
  • Nonetheless, the trend in surprises is uncomfortable for the ECB, which may not wait long in 2023 before it moves to hike rates
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Phil Rush
Chief Economist
Heteronomics
United KingdomMulti-AssetMacroeconomicsCross Asset Strategy

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior... 

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