Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

ECB: Inflation Alarm Wakes Policy in 2022

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash EA HICP inflation continued its extremely strong trend as broad support lifted it to 5.1% y-o-y in Jan-22. That was well beyond even our above-consensus forecast. </li>
<li>About a third of that 0.6pp error reflected weightings, with the rest more “core”. The shift up in the core trend seems set to remain problematic for economic models.</li>
<li>It looks increasingly likely that the downtrend will only noticeably begin in H2, with hawkish pressure mounting on the ECB in the interim.</li>
</ul>


Flash EA HICP inflation continued its extremely strong trend as broad support lifted it to 5.1% y-o-y in Jan-22. That was well beyond even our above-consensus forecast. 
About a third of that 0.6pp error reflected weightings, with the rest more “core”. The shift up in the core trend seems set to remain problematic for economic models.
It looks increasingly likely that the downtrend will only noticeably begin in H2, with hawkish pressure mounting on the ECB in the interim.


EA: Weights Compound Inflation in Jan-22