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HEW: Trump’s Salsa Turns Policy Tighter

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The ECB delivers a hawkish hold, keeping rates steady but signalling a tightening‑biased reaction function amid renewed energy‑driven inflation risks.</li>
<li>With upside inflation and downside growth risks, we still expect a June rate hike unless energy prices and short‑term expectations fall back quickly.</li>
<li>Data on energy pass‑through, wages and inflation expectations will determine whether this pause becomes a brief prelude to further tightening or a prolonged plateau.</li>
</ul>


The ECB delivers a hawkish hold, keeping rates steady but signalling a tightening‑biased reaction function amid renewed energy‑driven inflation risks.
With upside inflation and downside growth risks, we still expect a June rate hike unless energy prices and short‑term expectations fall back quickly.
Data on energy pass‑through, wages and inflation expectations will determine whether this pause becomes a brief prelude to further tightening or a prolonged plateau.


ECB On Hold, June Hike Looms