Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Inflation’s Apr-23 Uptick Finalised

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Q1 EA GDP growth disappointed recently raised expectations, matching the ECB’s March forecast for 0.1% q-o-q. And the ESI and EEI were stable in April rather than rising.</li>
<li>Persistent excess demand continues to support excess inflation, but firms are trimming their expectations from the highs in surveys, which is at least on the right path.</li>
<li>National flash releases for April suggest upside risks haven’t crystalised again, so the ECB has space to resist raising by 50bp in May. We expect three 25bp rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


Q1 EA GDP growth disappointed recently raised expectations, matching the ECB’s March forecast for 0.1% q-o-q. And the ESI and EEI were stable in April rather than rising.
Persistent excess demand continues to support excess inflation, but firms are trimming their expectations from the highs in surveys, which is at least on the right path.
National flash releases for April suggest upside risks haven’t crystalised again, so the ECB has space to resist raising by 50bp in May. We expect three 25bp rate hikes.


ECB Still on Track For 25bp Hike in May