Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The ECB raised its policy rates by 25bps in May, as we expected. A 50bp step was resisted, but APP reinvestment will end. The ECB sees more ground to cover.</li>
<li>Emphasis on the plural of decisions signals an intent to hike more than once more, depending on the data. We still expect 25bp deposit rate hikes in June and July.</li>
<li>Monetary policy is now deemed restrictive, implying a neutral rate with a 2-handle. Demand is being deferred to a time when it may discourage future cuts.</li>
</ul>


The ECB raised its policy rates by 25bps in May, as we expected. A 50bp step was resisted, but APP reinvestment will end. The ECB sees more ground to cover.
Emphasis on the plural of decisions signals an intent to hike more than once more, depending on the data. We still expect 25bp deposit rate hikes in June and July.
Monetary policy is now deemed restrictive, implying a neutral rate with a 2-handle. Demand is being deferred to a time when it may discourage future cuts.


ECB: More Ground to Cover Over Months