Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash EA inflation increased by another 0.1pp to 6.99% in Apr-23, despite weakness in Germany as upside news in Italy offset it. Overall, food and energy undershot for us.</li>
<li>Reassuringly, the surprise distribution across all member states was relatively balanced this month after regularly skewing higher, and core pressures eased slightly.</li>
<li>Underlying inflation remains too high, so the ECB should keep hiking, but the lack of upside news supports a 25bp step rather than reverting to another 50bp jump.</li>
</ul>


Flash EA inflation increased by another 0.1pp to 6.99% in Apr-23, despite weakness in Germany as upside news in Italy offset it. Overall, food and energy undershot for us.
Reassuringly, the surprise distribution across all member states was relatively balanced this month after regularly skewing higher, and core pressures eased slightly.
Underlying inflation remains too high, so the ECB should keep hiking, but the lack of upside news supports a 25bp step rather than reverting to another 50bp jump.


EA: HICP Surprises Rebalanced in Apr-23