Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Higher Correlation with US Yields but Less Differentiation Within EM Rates

2022 High Conviction: Thematic Rate Curve Steepening Trades in EM

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

How Are Rates in Asia Reacting to the Rise in US Yields?

Flattening of Rate Curves in EM Far Exceeds the US

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Barring the spike at the start of the pandemic, US rates volatility is close to the upper end of the 10-year range, which does not bode well for EM rates.</li>
<li>EM rates have sold off relative to the US at a much faster pace than in other similar episodes on a combination of fiscal deterioration, monetary tightening, and political noise.</li>
<li>While the spread of EM local rates to the US is extremely wide, it is prudent to be selective and focus on relative-value and curve trades to minimize risks.</li>
</ul>


Barring the spike at the start of the pandemic, US rates volatility is close to the upper end of the 10-year range, which does not bode well for EM rates.
EM rates have sold off relative to the US at a much faster pace than in other similar episodes on a combination of fiscal deterioration, monetary tightening, and political noise.
While the spread of EM local rates to the US is extremely wide, it is prudent to be selective and focus on relative-value and curve trades to minimize risks.


EM Local Rates in the Line of Fire as US Rates Volatility Spikes Higher

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

EM Local Rates in the Line of Fire as US Rates Volatility Spikes Higher