HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China recorded 270,000 increases in deaths in 2022 to 10.41m (+2.7% YoY, vs. flat in 2020). This is a sad demographic trend but favourable to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>Death rate of 0.74% has returned to the 1974 level. With termination of "zero COVID" policy, this is poised to increase. This will also stimulate demand for its pre-need services.</li>
<li>Despite a 73% rebound in share price from trough, valuation is still undemanding at 14.4x FY23F PER. This implies a 35% discount to the average of 22x since 2013. </li>
</ul>


China recorded 270,000 increases in deaths in 2022 to 10.41m (+2.7% YoY, vs. flat in 2020). This is a sad demographic trend but favourable to Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK).  
Death rate of 0.74% has returned to the 1974 level. With termination of "zero COVID" policy, this is poised to increase. This will also stimulate demand for its pre-need services.
Despite a 73% rebound in share price from trough, valuation is still undemanding at 14.4x FY23F PER. This implies a 35% discount to the average of 22x since 2013. 


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Latest Mortality Rate Supports Long-Term Outlook