Global Commodities: Beware the Ides of September

• Price structures have remained resilient in 2025, with Brent and WTI in backwardation despite OPEC supply hikes and increasing crude inventories
• Five conditions were needed for crude prices to start reflecting year-end weakness, but only two have materialized so far
• OECD crude inventories have not built as aggressively as expected, with a lopsided increase in global stocks outside of Western markets, particularly in China

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