Global Commodities: Supply disruptions give copper prices breakout velocity

• Copper prices surged from around $10,000 to $10,350 per metric ton due to a longer and more severe outage than expected at the Grasberg mine.
• The disruption in production is expected to result in a 200,000 metric ton shortfall in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a further 270,000 metric ton loss in 2026.
• The impact of the supply shortage has flipped the refined copper market from a surplus to a significant deficit, leading to a bullish outlook and a projected price increase to $11,250 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2026.

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