Global Rates: Euro area and UK rate markets into the end of summer

• Market pricing is not expecting a rate cut at the ECB September meeting, but further easing may still be on the table later in the year.
• Swap spreads typically narrow in August, but this year they have been stable, potentially due to French political developments.
• Seasonality and potential volatility could still drive narrowing in swap spreads in the near term, despite weakening relationships with German swap spreads.

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