Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Lifting GrainCorp's FVE, but Shares of the No-Moat Firm Look Fairly Valued

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Almost five years to the day since then-treasurer Joe Hockey <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131129/pdf/42l899pt2st03s.pdf" target="_blank">shot down</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14746" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14746:1">Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)</a>'s $12.20/share Offer ($13.20/share including dividends), Aussie bulk-grain handler <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18531" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1">Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)</a> is back in the spotlight after it <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181203/pdf/440wl8jyslll84.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> a non-binding, indicative proposal from Long-Term Asset Partners Pty Ltd (“LTAP”), via a scheme, for a cash consideration of A$10.42/share, a 43% premium to GrainCorp’s Friday closing price of $7.30, and around a five-year high. 
Although GrainCorp's board has decided to engage with LTAP in the context of its ongoing portfolio review to further assess the merits of the proposal, it has yet to form a "view on whether the price offered under the LATP proposal is at a level which it is prepared to recommend to shareholders in the context of a change of control".
The board said it also requires additional information on the identity of the investors underpinning the LTAP proposal, as well as the longer-term financing plan and intentions for the business. LTAP is a new entity and this is its initial investment.
The offer was announced in tandem with a portfolio review, which is widely rumoured to extend to Cargill's global malt operations, an equity raising, the sale of storage facilities/bulk liquid terminals, or a mixture of each, as the company slogs through drought-impacted operational underperformance.
Trading at a gross/annualised (assuming mid-May completion) of 12.5%/31.6%, which is reasonable for an offer that is non-binding, subject to due diligence and involves a complex financing structure with significant leverage.

Almost five years to the day since then-treasurer Joe Hockey shot down Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM US)'s $12.20/share Offer ($13.20/share including dividends), Aussie bulk-grain handler Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU) is back in the spotlight after it announced a non-binding, indicative proposal from Long-Term Asset Partners Pty Ltd (“LTAP”), via a scheme, for a cash consideration of A$10.42/share, a 43% premium to GrainCorp’s Friday closing price of $7.30, and around a five-year high. 
Although GrainCorp's board has decided to engage with LTAP in the context of its ongoing portfolio review to further assess the merits of the proposal, it has yet to form a "view on whether the price offered under the LATP proposal is at a level which it is prepared to recommend to shareholders in the context of a change of control".
The board said it also requires additional information on the identity of the investors underpinning the LTAP proposal, as well as the longer-term financing plan and intentions for the business. LTAP is a new entity and this is its initial investment.
The offer was announced in tandem with a portfolio review, which is widely rumoured to extend to Cargill's global malt operations, an equity raising, the sale of storage facilities/bulk liquid terminals, or a mixture of each, as the company slogs through drought-impacted operational underperformance.
Trading at a gross/annualised (assuming mid-May completion) of 12.5%/31.6%, which is reasonable for an offer that is non-binding, subject to due diligence and involves a complex financing structure with significant leverage.

Graincorp Redux: LTAP's Offer May Necessitate A Bump