HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

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Quantitative Analysis

Hong kong Industrials / Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>On average, the HSI lost 1.1% (since 2013) and 2.8% (since 2019) in Oct. The worst drop was 2022 with a 14.7% plunge, and the second-worst is 10.1% in 2018.</li>
<li>If HSI settles at 1SD lower than the historical average Oct return, it will translate into return of -7.5%, and if 2SD, it will be -14%.</li>
<li>A weak Oct sets the strong stage for Nov and Dec, which are historically best months. Picking up when the market retreats looks to be sensible.</li>
</ul>


On average, the HSI lost 1.1% (since 2013) and 2.8% (since 2019) in Oct. The worst drop was 2022 with a 14.7% plunge, and the second-worst is 10.1% in 2018.
If HSI settles at 1SD lower than the historical average Oct return, it will translate into return of -7.5%, and if 2SD, it will be -14%.
A weak Oct sets the strong stage for Nov and Dec, which are historically best months. Picking up when the market retreats looks to be sensible.


HK Strategy: How Low Can October Go?