Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thoughts on Amazon –What Does Its Valuation Tells Us?

Netflix & Amazon Expand in Korea – Not a Coincidence

Okja: The Fight Between Netflix Vs. CJ CGV

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has been reasonably widely thought to be interested in selling its global oil &amp; gas assets business as CEO Mike Henry looks to "future-facing" commodities businesses. Over the weekend, it came out that BHP global O&amp;G head Geraldine Slattery <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhps-geraldine-slattery-arrival-sparks-woodside-deal-talk/news-story/d654f29deab29380c23abb6ca2ce261a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">had flown to Perth</a>, where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> is headquartered. Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column on Sunday confirmed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> were in talks to do a deal on BHP's oil and gas assets whereby Woodside would issue BHP $20bn of shares in return for the assets, and then BHP would distribute most of the shares to shareholders so as to make sure it did not turn into a change-of-control transaction. There simply is no way this would be done as a cash transaction.I note that Woodside itself is looking for a permanent CEO after longtime CEO Peter Coleman exited in June. Meg O’Neill in charge of Woodside’s development and marketing arm, is acting CEO. Getting a new CEO in the process of buying assets to make it bigger - especially increasing its presence in the Scarborough project and in the Gulf of Mexico, might be just the ticket. The discussion being mooted suggests a change of control situation might be or have been in the offing. Based on revenues and operating profits that may be reasonable. Based on total assets, it would suggest a strong premium for BHP's producing and development assets. BHP reports earnings on Tuesday after market close, and Woodside reports pre-open on Wednesday.BHP has been distributing proceeds of its shrinkage to its investors for the last while. One should not expect that to change. What "price" BHP "gets" in such a deal is almost irrelevant - A$18bn? A$20bn? A$18bn? If they get an extra A$1bn it will be a nice cherry on top for the owners of A$250bn market cap company but there are questions about upfront vs ongoing liability and one does not know if they would retain a 15-20% stake, as is apparently being <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhps-geraldine-slattery-arrival-sparks-woodside-deal-talk/news-story/d654f29deab29380c23abb6ca2ce261a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mooted</a>.However, the deal structure itself creates some interesting issues which will mean some very big changes.More below.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has been reasonably widely thought to be interested in selling its global oil &amp; gas assets business as CEO Mike Henry looks to "future-facing" commodities businesses. Over the weekend, it came out that BHP global O&amp;G head Geraldine Slattery had flown to Perth, where Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) is headquartered. Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column on Sunday confirmed that Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) and BHP Group (BHP AU) were in talks to do a deal on BHP's oil and gas assets whereby Woodside would issue BHP $20bn of shares in return for the assets, and then BHP would distribute most of the shares to shareholders so as to make sure it did not turn into a change-of-control transaction. There simply is no way this would be done as a cash transaction.I note that Woodside itself is looking for a permanent CEO after longtime CEO Peter Coleman exited in June. Meg O’Neill in charge of Woodside’s development and marketing arm, is acting CEO. Getting a new CEO in the process of buying assets to make it bigger - especially increasing its presence in the Scarborough project and in the Gulf of Mexico, might be just the ticket. The discussion being mooted suggests a change of control situation might be or have been in the offing. Based on revenues and operating profits that may be reasonable. Based on total assets, it would suggest a strong premium for BHP's producing and development assets. BHP reports earnings on Tuesday after market close, and Woodside reports pre-open on Wednesday.BHP has been distributing proceeds of its shrinkage to its investors for the last while. One should not expect that to change. What "price" BHP "gets" in such a deal is almost irrelevant - A$18bn? A$20bn? A$18bn? If they get an extra A$1bn it will be a nice cherry on top for the owners of A$250bn market cap company but there are questions about upfront vs ongoing liability and one does not know if they would retain a 15-20% stake, as is apparently being mooted.However, the deal structure itself creates some interesting issues which will mean some very big changes.More below.

If Woodside Buys BHP Petroleum for Scrip, There Will Be Flowback