Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

India: EU FTA, US Tariff Reductions Dovetail with Budget's Manufacturing Focus

India: Revised GDP Series' Strong but Stabler Growth; but Oil to Hurt in FY27

India-South Korea FTA 2026: What Can We Expect if It Plays Out?

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

India Twin Deficit Watch: CAD Shrinking to 0.2% of GDP, Fiscal Deficit Back on Target

India: 8.2%YoY Growth in Q2FY26; to Accelerate to 9%YoY in Oct'25-Sep'26

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Merchandise exports grew 3.1%YoY in Oct-Dec'25 despite Trump's 50% tariffs, but imports grew 7.8%YoY. The Apr-Dec'25 goods deficit rose 10.8%YoY, but the services surplus for Apr-Nov'25 expanded 17%YoY.</li>
<li>Our estimated CAD for Apr-Dec'25 is US$6bn (0.2% of GDP). Even with a smaller Jan-Mar surplus than last year's US$13.4bn, we expect a FY26 current account surplus (0.1% of GDP).</li>
<li>CPI inflation averaged 0.9%YoY in Oct-Dec'25, and will likely average 2%YoY in Jan-Mar'26 (vs RBI forecast of 2.9%YoY). We expect another 50bp of cuts by Jun'26, to a 4.75% repo-rate. </li>
</ul>


Merchandise exports grew 3.1%YoY in Oct-Dec'25 despite Trump's 50% tariffs, but imports grew 7.8%YoY. The Apr-Dec'25 goods deficit rose 10.8%YoY, but the services surplus for Apr-Nov'25 expanded 17%YoY.
Our estimated CAD for Apr-Dec'25 is US$6bn (0.2% of GDP). Even with a smaller Jan-Mar surplus than last year's US$13.4bn, we expect a FY26 current account surplus (0.1% of GDP).
CPI inflation averaged 0.9%YoY in Oct-Dec'25, and will likely average 2%YoY in Jan-Mar'26 (vs RBI forecast of 2.9%YoY). We expect another 50bp of cuts by Jun'26, to a 4.75% repo-rate. 


S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India: CA Surplus Likely Despite US Tariffs; Tame Inflation Allows More Rate Cuts