Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Corporate Profit Expectations Remain Resilient, as Global Credit Conditions Become Less Benign

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Europe's reliance on energy imports means that supply shocks due to the Middle East conflict raise stagflation risks compared to the US, but downside US growth risks still exist. </li>
<li>Risks of a higher global inflationary backdrop have reduced the attraction of embracing duration risk in the absence of lower asset valuations. Expectations of Fed easing have been pared back.</li>
<li>Aggregate measures of US financial conditions have not tightened since the start of the Iran conflict. US corporate credit quality remains decent, but a prolonged conflict could warrant downward revision. </li>
</ul>


Europe's reliance on energy imports means that supply shocks due to the Middle East conflict raise stagflation risks compared to the US, but downside US growth risks still exist. 
Risks of a higher global inflationary backdrop have reduced the attraction of embracing duration risk in the absence of lower asset valuations. Expectations of Fed easing have been pared back.
Aggregate measures of US financial conditions have not tightened since the start of the Iran conflict. US corporate credit quality remains decent, but a prolonged conflict could warrant downward revision. 


Inflation Threat Cools Appetite for Duration Risk as Fed Plays a Waiting Game