Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Inflation Threat Cools Appetite for Duration Risk as Fed Plays a Waiting Game

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite geopolitical upheavals in the Middle East, US corporate profit expectations for 2026 have remained resilient. The correction in US equity prices in 2026 has been attributable to P/E compression.</li>
<li>Higher energy prices will increase the demand for liquidity in the real economy, thereby  exerting pressure on financial markets. Credit markets are currently more concerned about inflation risks than recession.</li>
<li>Rising sovereign bond yields reflect hawkish short-term interest rate expectations.  High reliance on Middle East oil supplies in the Asia-Pacific region raise stagflation risks in the event of protracted hostilities.</li>
</ul>


Despite geopolitical upheavals in the Middle East, US corporate profit expectations for 2026 have remained resilient. The correction in US equity prices in 2026 has been attributable to P/E compression.
Higher energy prices will increase the demand for liquidity in the real economy, thereby  exerting pressure on financial markets. Credit markets are currently more concerned about inflation risks than recession.
Rising sovereign bond yields reflect hawkish short-term interest rate expectations.  High reliance on Middle East oil supplies in the Asia-Pacific region raise stagflation risks in the event of protracted hostilities.


US Corporate Profit Expectations Remain Resilient, as Global Credit Conditions Become Less Benign