European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Intertek Update: £58 Bid Lands - Close to the Limit, But Not Irrational

Intertek: 3rd Offer Rejected, Break-Up Thesis Strengthened

Intertek: The £60 Final Offer Shifts Pressure to the Board

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Intertek is now effectively trading on the outcome of the EQT approach and strategic review, with the current price (~5000p) implying an 88.7% probability of a successful outcome.</li>
<li>The rejected £51.50 bid (11.4x NTM EBITDA) already reflects base-case break-up value (~£52 per share), with SOTP and peer valuation converging at the same level.</li>
<li>Upside depends on a higher offer (mid-50s), while downside remains material (~-24%); the trade has shifted from valuation to conviction on a higher bid.</li>
</ul>


Intertek is now effectively trading on the outcome of the EQT approach and strategic review, with the current price (~5000p) implying an 88.7% probability of a successful outcome.
The rejected £51.50 bid (11.4x NTM EBITDA) already reflects base-case break-up value (~£52 per share), with SOTP and peer valuation converging at the same level.
Upside depends on a higher offer (mid-50s), while downside remains material (~-24%); the trade has shifted from valuation to conviction on a higher bid.


Intertek: Bid Reflects Break-Up Value — Now a Higher Bid Trade