European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Intertek: 3rd Offer Rejected, Break-Up Thesis Strengthened

Intertek: The £60 Final Offer Shifts Pressure to the Board

Intertek: Recommended at £61.077 — Now a Completion Trade

Intertek: Bid Reflects Break-Up Value — Now a Higher Bid Trade

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT’s new £58 proposal values Intertek at 12.2x NTM EBITDA, modestly above peer levels and our prior SOTP range, shifting the debate from valuation upside toward execution and deal completion.</li>
<li>The transaction economics only work if EQT actively executes a break-up or drives re-rating of the core Testing&amp;Assurance business; under passive ownership, estimated LBO returns fall below traditional thresholds.</li>
<li>Our updated scenario analysis implies ~5% expected return versus ~24% downside from a 5000p entry, highlighting that upside has largely played out while downside risk remains materially unchanged.</li>
</ul>


EQT’s new £58 proposal values Intertek at 12.2x NTM EBITDA, modestly above peer levels and our prior SOTP range, shifting the debate from valuation upside toward execution and deal completion.
The transaction economics only work if EQT actively executes a break-up or drives re-rating of the core Testing&amp;Assurance business; under passive ownership, estimated LBO returns fall below traditional thresholds.
Our updated scenario analysis implies ~5% expected return versus ~24% downside from a 5000p entry, highlighting that upside has largely played out while downside risk remains materially unchanged.


Intertek Update: £58 Bid Lands - Close to the Limit, But Not Irrational