Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

StubWorld: On Toyota Inds (6201 JP)'s Last Day Of Offer

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Deal for TICO (6201) Extended. VERY Few Minorities Have Tendered.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Preview II - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

[Japan M&A] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part I; Offensive Process, Light Deal, Bun Fight?

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part II: Trading Through, Buns at Dawn

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

[Japan M&A] ARCHION (Hino+MFTBC) Merger Incoming; Still a Re-IPO, Still Rich

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The fact <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is only 4+% through terms is an indication investors are unconvinced blocking this deal gets a good governance result. That's bad. </li>
<li>Remember TICO+Toyota Group were already unwinding cross-holdings. The original docs said they'd agreed. I doubt they un-agree. The transaction WITH buybacks WITHOUT takeover (or restructuring) has a BVPS of ¥28,855.</li>
<li>If the benefits of uplift are shared with Toyota and all Crossholders, they receive an extra ¥385bn and ¥159bn and post-deal minority BVPS is "just" ¥25,549. Best outcome? Deal break.</li>
</ul>


The fact Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is only 4+% through terms is an indication investors are unconvinced blocking this deal gets a good governance result. That's bad. 
Remember TICO+Toyota Group were already unwinding cross-holdings. The original docs said they'd agreed. I doubt they un-agree. The transaction WITH buybacks WITHOUT takeover (or restructuring) has a BVPS of ¥28,855.
If the benefits of uplift are shared with Toyota and all Crossholders, they receive an extra ¥385bn and ¥159bn and post-deal minority BVPS is "just" ¥25,549. Best outcome? Deal break.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Last Looks