Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Russia Is Less Than Markets Feared & There’s Upside to DPS Est

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2022 High Conviction - Japan Tobacco: The Comeback Story

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>’s share price fell 14% from the bottom end of the upward trend channel and underperformed Topix by 6% over the last 15 days.</li>
<li>Even if Russia yields zero dollars, we think the impact on JT’s valuation could be around 20%.</li>
<li>With demand for cigarettes expected to go up during these war times, we think the market reaction of this scale is unwarranted.</li>
</ul>



Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s share price fell 14% from the bottom end of the upward trend channel and underperformed Topix by 6% over the last 15 days.
Even if Russia yields zero dollars, we think the impact on JT’s valuation could be around 20%.
With demand for cigarettes expected to go up during these war times, we think the market reaction of this scale is unwarranted.


Japan Tobacco 2022 High Conviction Update: The Russia Ukraine War Impact Is a Bit Overdone