Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Deep Value with Hidden JSW Optionality

JFE Holdings: India JV Resets Long-Term Growth Path; Deep Value with Structural Upside

JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 FY2025 was weak with Steel swinging to losses (–¥2,300/t) on spreads, FX, and inventory drag, leaving recovery hinging on H2.</li>
<li>We retain our FY25–28 earnings estimates, assuming stable ~15–16% EBITDA margins and volume growth to 31.6 Mt by FY28.</li>
<li>At ~US$525/t EV/t (adj.), JFE trades at a deep discount to Nippon Steel, but upside depends on spreads stabilizing and tariff risks not worsening.</li>
</ul>


Q1 FY2025 was weak with Steel swinging to losses (–¥2,300/t) on spreads, FX, and inventory drag, leaving recovery hinging on H2.
We retain our FY25–28 earnings estimates, assuming stable ~15–16% EBITDA margins and volume growth to 31.6 Mt by FY28.
At ~US$525/t EV/t (adj.), JFE trades at a deep discount to Nippon Steel, but upside depends on spreads stabilizing and tariff risks not worsening.


JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Soft Q1 Priced In; Compelling Upside from Lowest EV/Ton in Peers