Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LAM beats largely Sept-25 (15% above), Dec-25 guidance slightly above (4%), long-term drivers are concrete: $100bn in Data Center = 8bn in semi equipment, $40bn of NAND equipment to upgrade.</li>
<li>LAM is gaining share (depo / etch growing faster than litho), is ahead in the new stuff (Moly ALD, dry resist EUV). YTD Net Income is up 44%. Very impressive.</li>
<li>Among Semi Equipment stocks, LRCX is the best performer YTD: up 88%. LRCX is trading at +2.5 standard deviations: 30x forward EPS versus average 17x. Time to sell.</li>
</ul>


LAM beats largely Sept-25 (15% above), Dec-25 guidance slightly above (4%), long-term drivers are concrete: $100bn in Data Center = 8bn in semi equipment, $40bn of NAND equipment to upgrade.
LAM is gaining share (depo / etch growing faster than litho), is ahead in the new stuff (Moly ALD, dry resist EUV). YTD Net Income is up 44%. Very impressive.
Among Semi Equipment stocks, LRCX is the best performer YTD: up 88%. LRCX is trading at +2.5 standard deviations: 30x forward EPS versus average 17x. Time to sell.


Lam Research: Sept-25 Beat (15%), 4Q Above Consensus, but After 88% Rally the Stock Is Expensive.