Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Minerva 2Q26: Margin Pressure Persists, Cash Conversion Still the Test

Minerva 4Q25: Domestic Weakness and Cost Inflation Weigh on Profitability

Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure

Minerva: Balancing an Interesting Credit Story with Acquisition Risks

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Better entry value: The 2031s have widened meaningfully since 4Q25, restoring spread cushion and becoming Minerva’s cleanest risk-adjusted curve expression.</li>
<li>
Execution risk remains: Higher cattle costs, negative post-working-capital FCF, and cash interest coverage below 2.0x keep the credit story balanced rather than improving.</li>
<li>
Valuation driver: Scale, pricing, liability management, and integration support EBITDA, but stronger free cash flow conversion is needed for a more constructive stance.</li>
</ul>



Better entry value: The 2031s have widened meaningfully since 4Q25, restoring spread cushion and becoming Minerva’s cleanest risk-adjusted curve expression.

Execution risk remains: Higher cattle costs, negative post-working-capital FCF, and cash interest coverage below 2.0x keep the credit story balanced rather than improving.

Valuation driver: Scale, pricing, liability management, and integration support EBITDA, but stronger free cash flow conversion is needed for a more constructive stance.


Minerva 1Q26: Bigger Platform, Same Cattle Cycle Pressure