Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Minerva: Balancing an Interesting Credit Story with Acquisition Risks

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies</li>
<li>We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile</li>
<li>Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies
We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile
Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks


Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure

Minerva /Brazil

Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure