Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Over 20 years experience in equities and asset management in Asia and Japan. Qualified CFA with experience analyzing companies as a buy-side analyst. In-depth knowledge of company fundamental analysis, corporate governance and valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core SaaS execution remains excellent, with record organic customer additions, 36% Corporate ARR growth while corporate churn remained below expectations. </li>
<li>The guidance upgrade is less impressive than it appears, as much of the EBITDA uplift reflects Finance one-offs and transaction revenue rather than higher recurring SaaS expectations. </li>
<li>Given stock +30% since Q1 results, we would fade the raise. Valuation at 3.6x NFY EV/Sales no longer cheap</li>
</ul>


Core SaaS execution remains excellent, with record organic customer additions, 36% Corporate ARR growth while corporate churn remained below expectations. 
The guidance upgrade is less impressive than it appears, as much of the EBITDA uplift reflects Finance one-offs and transaction revenue rather than higher recurring SaaS expectations. 
Given stock +30% since Q1 results, we would fade the raise. Valuation at 3.6x NFY EV/Sales no longer cheap


Money Forward (3994) | 2Q26 Review - Core SaaS Strong, but the Guidance Upgrade Is Lower Quality