Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen</li>
<li>Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance</li>
<li>The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation </li>
</ul>


Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen
Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance
The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation 


<ul>
<li>Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen</li>
<li>Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion</li>
<li>Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)</li>
</ul>


Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion
Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)


<ul>
<li>Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.</li>
<li>Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.</li>
<li>Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.</li>
</ul>


Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.
Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.
Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.


Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s stock price has declined by 2% YTD versus a 23% gain for the overall market. Technically, the stock is approaching oversold levels</li>
<li>We see 38% upside for Money Forward’s stock price. At 5.5x EV/revenue, the stock is trading at a 50% discount to global peer, Intuit</li>
<li>We believe that investors are under pricing the size of the Japanese market for cloud accounting and operating leverage from penetration into mid-cap corporate market</li>
</ul>


Money Forward’s stock price has declined by 2% YTD versus a 23% gain for the overall market. Technically, the stock is approaching oversold levels
We see 38% upside for Money Forward’s stock price. At 5.5x EV/revenue, the stock is trading at a 50% discount to global peer, Intuit
We believe that investors are under pricing the size of the Japanese market for cloud accounting and operating leverage from penetration into mid-cap corporate market


Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

<ul>
<li>Money Forward's Corporate SaaS business is thriving, with +44% year-over-year growth in ARR, a 139,000-strong customer base, and a healthy CAC-to-LTV ratio of 3.7x.</li>
<li>Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's 20% decline is attributed to market fixation on quarterly earnings and concerns about rising interest rates.</li>
<li>The company's untapped potential lies in the mid-market segment, where cross-selling opportunities across 18 paid products could significantly boost ARPA, tapping into a TAM estimated at $15 billion.</li>
</ul>


Money Forward's Corporate SaaS business is thriving, with +44% year-over-year growth in ARR, a 139,000-strong customer base, and a healthy CAC-to-LTV ratio of 3.7x.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock's 20% decline is attributed to market fixation on quarterly earnings and concerns about rising interest rates.
The company's untapped potential lies in the mid-market segment, where cross-selling opportunities across 18 paid products could significantly boost ARPA, tapping into a TAM estimated at $15 billion.


Money Forward (3994) | A Deep Dive into the Corporate Business

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

Money Forward (3994 JP)

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | A Deep Dive into the Corporate Business

Corporate SaaS business is thriving, but stock decline is due to market fixation on earnings and concerns about interest rates. Untapped potential...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

​Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

​Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

​Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | A Deep Dive into the Corporate Business

Corporate SaaS business is thriving, but stock decline is due to market fixation on earnings and concerns about interest rates. Untapped potential...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...