Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Over 20 years experience in equities and asset management in Asia and Japan. Qualified CFA with experience analyzing companies as a buy-side analyst. In-depth knowledge of company fundamental analysis, corporate governance and valuations.

Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off

Money Forward (3994) | Banking on Focus; Q3 Preview

Equity Bottom-Up

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Q3 Summary: Solid EBITDA beat with margin expansion to 12%, though top-line missed street estimates; core business KPIs broadly in line, with slightly soft ARPA growth.</li>
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Thesis: Strong positioning in Japan’s underpenetrated SaaS back-office market, with regulatory tailwinds, operational leverage, and FY11/28 targets of ¥65B sales and ¥20B EBITDA. </li>
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Valuation: Stock trades near our ¥5,700 fair value (~6x EV/revenue); short-term upside limited, but long-term fundamentals remain attractive.</li>
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Q3 Summary: Solid EBITDA beat with margin expansion to 12%, though top-line missed street estimates; core business KPIs broadly in line, with slightly soft ARPA growth.

Thesis: Strong positioning in Japan’s underpenetrated SaaS back-office market, with regulatory tailwinds, operational leverage, and FY11/28 targets of ¥65B sales and ¥20B EBITDA. 

Valuation: Stock trades near our ¥5,700 fair value (~6x EV/revenue); short-term upside limited, but long-term fundamentals remain attractive.


Money Forward (3994 JP) | Q3 FY11/25 Results - Better Profitability; Core KPIs In-Line