Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google's Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. </li>
<li>The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.</li>
<li>This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.
This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

NVIDIA Corp

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive