Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Philippines: POGO in an Overheating Economy

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - The Anwar Filip, Indonesian Mobile Data, and Singapore Banks

Indonesia and the Philippines - A Tale of Two Tightenings

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

Real Lending Rate Signals: Warnings Now Flashing in India and Indonesia

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)

<p>Since 2011, which are the top three countries in Asia in terms of average real GDP growth per annum? Most pundits would probably guess the top two – China and India – but how many would put the Philippines in at number three? Asia’s former ‘sick man’ has made a formidable recovery since the end of the Global Financial Crisis.</p><p>Undoubtedly, many would cite President Noynoy Aquino as the architect of Philippine outperformance and, during his tenure, confidence and governance undoubtedly improved spectacularly. But despite his negative Western-press profile, President Rodrigo Duterte has added to the growth momentum he inherited. His Build, Build, Build programme and Tax Reform Acceleration and Inclusion policy are aimed at taking Philippines growth into the 7-8% range, the same as regional leader, India. We would not bet against him achieving his goals, but this isn't changing our underweight position on Philippines equities either. If the signs of overheating are not addressed quickly, the Philippines boom will meet its bust.</p>

Since 2011, which are the top three countries in Asia in terms of average real GDP growth per annum? Most pundits would probably guess the top two – China and India – but how many would put the Philippines in at number three? Asia’s former ‘sick man’ has made a formidable recovery since the end of the Global Financial Crisis.Undoubtedly, many would cite President Noynoy Aquino as the architect of Philippine outperformance and, during his tenure, confidence and governance undoubtedly improved spectacularly. But despite his negative Western-press profile, President Rodrigo Duterte has added to the growth momentum he inherited. His Build, Build, Build programme and Tax Reform Acceleration and Inclusion policy are aimed at taking Philippines growth into the 7-8% range, the same as regional leader, India. We would not bet against him achieving his goals, but this isn't changing our underweight position on Philippines equities either. If the signs of overheating are not addressed quickly, the Philippines boom will meet its bust.

Philippines: Spotlight on Growth - Not Returns