European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

SEGRO: Prologis Moves Closer to a Recommended Offer

Prologis/SEGRO: The Gap Narrows, but the Negotiation Continues

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The agreed Scheme values SEGRO at 1,054.3p including the retained 2026 final dividend, effectively matching our 1,055p target price and validating our original standalone valuation.</li>
<li>Using current market prices, the live completion value is 1,030.9p, leaving a 7.3% gross spread and an estimated 8.1% annualised return to our assumed 30 June 2027 settlement.</li>
<li>We raise our completion probability to 88%, above the market-implied 75.8%, and now favour a conventional long SEGRO/short Prologis merger-arbitrage position over an outright long SEGRO exposure.</li>
</ul>


The agreed Scheme values SEGRO at 1,054.3p including the retained 2026 final dividend, effectively matching our 1,055p target price and validating our original standalone valuation.
Using current market prices, the live completion value is 1,030.9p, leaving a 7.3% gross spread and an estimated 8.1% annualised return to our assumed 30 June 2027 settlement.
We raise our completion probability to 88%, above the market-implied 75.8%, and now favour a conventional long SEGRO/short Prologis merger-arbitrage position over an outright long SEGRO exposure.


Prologis/SEGRO: Agreement Reached at Fair Value