European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Prologis/SEGRO: The Gap Narrows, but the Negotiation Continues

SEGRO: Prologis Moves Closer to a Recommended Offer

Prologis/SEGRO: Agreement Reached at Fair Value

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Prologis' original 925p proposal now implies only 858p/share after the fall in its own share price, leaving SEGRO trading above the current exchange ratio and signalling expectations of higher terms.</li>
<li>We estimate SEGRO's intrinsic value at 1,055p/share by adding conservative values for the development pipeline and data-centre option to reported EPRA NTA, leaving a 197p valuation gap versus today's proposal.</li>
<li>Prologis' strongest argument is cost of capital. SEGRO can fund its pipeline, but likely over six to seven years. Prologis could accelerate development materially through its larger balance sheet platform.</li>
</ul>


Prologis' original 925p proposal now implies only 858p/share after the fall in its own share price, leaving SEGRO trading above the current exchange ratio and signalling expectations of higher terms.
We estimate SEGRO's intrinsic value at 1,055p/share by adding conservative values for the development pipeline and data-centre option to reported EPRA NTA, leaving a 197p valuation gap versus today's proposal.
Prologis' strongest argument is cost of capital. SEGRO can fund its pipeline, but likely over six to seven years. Prologis could accelerate development materially through its larger balance sheet platform.


SEGRO

SEGRO: What Is Prologis Really Buying?