European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The $19bn EV operation (vs. Repsol's market cap of €19bn) allows Repsol to maintain the majority in a strategic area, crystallizes value (market assigns a higher valuation to the E&amp;P division separately).</li>
<li>The implied valuation by the market is on average $3 billion lower. As usual with a minority stake sale, the market rarely values it at 100%. </li>
<li>I estimate a moderate positive impact (the deal is similar to what was announced in July), value unlocking could theoretically reach €2.5-€3 per share, but I'd take a neutral stance.</li>
</ul>


The $19bn EV operation (vs. Repsol's market cap of €19bn) allows Repsol to maintain the majority in a strategic area, crystallizes value (market assigns a higher valuation to the E&amp;P division separately).
The implied valuation by the market is on average $3 billion lower. As usual with a minority stake sale, the market rarely values it at 100%. 
I estimate a moderate positive impact (the deal is similar to what was announced in July), value unlocking could theoretically reach €2.5-€3 per share, but I'd take a neutral stance.


Repsol SA

Repsol: Sale of 25% of E&P Division