Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

"Sell in May" Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development
