Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Sembcorp Marine MGO Goes Unconditional But No Extension. Deadline Is 3 Nov.

Keppel : Thinking About Keppel/SMM MergeCo and NEW KEPPEL Pro-Forma Opportunities

One More Day To Trade Sembcorp Marine Rights, Harvest the Spread, or Buy The MGO Option

Sembcorp Marine Rights Done - The MGO Option It Is

Sembcorp Marine Goes Ex-Rights - Strategy From Here

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

As expected, on 22 September 2021, Temasek <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=684187" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its Mandatory General Offer for shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>. As suggested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-done-the-mgo-option-it-is" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57802" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Done - The MGO Option It Is</a>, Temasek ended up at 46.6% which triggers an offer to remain in compliance with Rule 14.1 of the Takeover Code.  For each Offer Share: S$0.08 in cash (the "Offer Price").  The Offer Price is final and the Offeror will not revise the Offer Price or any other terms of the MGO.There are conditions of which one must take note.Pursuant to Rule 14.2 of the Code, if the Offeror Concert Party Group does not hold more than 50% of the issued Shares when the MGO is made, the MGO is required to be made conditional upon the Offeror Concert Party Group receiving such number of acceptances which would result in the Offeror Concert Party Group holding more than 50% of the voting rights attributable to the share capital of the Company.IF the Offer garners shares which would take it above 50%, then it would become Unconditional. Until then, the offer is not unconditional, or complete, if it does not get to 50%. Importantly, the Offer will last 28 days and "if the MGO becomes unconditional as to acceptances before the Closing Date or even if the MGO becomes unconditional as to acceptances on the Closing Date itself, there will not be any extension of the Closing Date and Shareholders who do not accept the MGO by the Closing Date will not be able to do so after the Closing Date."No extension. At all. The proposal I made on the 19th when the shares were S$0.084 the previous close was that the stock would probably fall once shares were delivered, but that once fallen, the shares would have much better upside vs downside skew if they reached S$0.079-0.081. The shares actually popped on delivery, but a day later we still closed S$0.081. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/231/489/original/Screenshot+2021-09-24+at+1.03.26+AM.png?1632416647" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="231489"></figure></section>This situation leaves us with an interesting profile. More details below.

As expected, on 22 September 2021, Temasek announced its Mandatory General Offer for shares of Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP). As suggested in Sembcorp Marine Rights Done - The MGO Option It Is, Temasek ended up at 46.6% which triggers an offer to remain in compliance with Rule 14.1 of the Takeover Code.  For each Offer Share: S$0.08 in cash (the "Offer Price").  The Offer Price is final and the Offeror will not revise the Offer Price or any other terms of the MGO.There are conditions of which one must take note.Pursuant to Rule 14.2 of the Code, if the Offeror Concert Party Group does not hold more than 50% of the issued Shares when the MGO is made, the MGO is required to be made conditional upon the Offeror Concert Party Group receiving such number of acceptances which would result in the Offeror Concert Party Group holding more than 50% of the voting rights attributable to the share capital of the Company.IF the Offer garners shares which would take it above 50%, then it would become Unconditional. Until then, the offer is not unconditional, or complete, if it does not get to 50%. Importantly, the Offer will last 28 days and "if the MGO becomes unconditional as to acceptances before the Closing Date or even if the MGO becomes unconditional as to acceptances on the Closing Date itself, there will not be any extension of the Closing Date and Shareholders who do not accept the MGO by the Closing Date will not be able to do so after the Closing Date."No extension. At all. The proposal I made on the 19th when the shares were S$0.084 the previous close was that the stock would probably fall once shares were delivered, but that once fallen, the shares would have much better upside vs downside skew if they reached S$0.079-0.081. The shares actually popped on delivery, but a day later we still closed S$0.081. This situation leaves us with an interesting profile. More details below. 

Sembcorp Marine MGO - The Implied Option Tells You About the Market, And It's The Wrong Price.

Seatrium

Sembcorp Marine MGO - The Implied Option Tells You About the Market, And It's The Wrong Price.