Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Real GDP will likely grow 6.5% in 2021, pushing CPI inflation above 2%YoY by mid-year. The monetary stance will officially tighten (to "gradual appreciation of the S$NEER") in October 2021. Given excess supply of residential and commercial property, we expect downward pressure on property prices, and hence recommend being Underweight Singapore equities, but long the SGD. Manufacturing production grew 11.1% YoY in 1Q 2021 (much faster than the 7.5% estimate in the Advance Estimate of GDP announced on 14 April), so real GDP is likely to have grown at least 1.2% YoY in 1Q 2021. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 9.7% YoY in 1Q 2021, the strongest in the last 4 quarters. Helped by the low-base (-13.3% YoY in 2Q 2020), real GDP is likely to grow at least 12% YoY in 2Q 2020, and a further 6% YoY in 2H 2021 -- ensuring real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021, faster than the official forecast of "4 to 6%" growth this year. The unemployment rate has fallen to 2.9% in March 2021, above the average of the past decade, but below the levels that prevailed in 1998-2001, 2003-06 and 2009. With tourism-facing sectors unlikely to restore jobs, the effective "full employment" level for the rest of the economy is an unemployment rate of 2.5%, which will be reached by mid-2021. CPI inflation is already at 1.3%, the highest since May 2017, and will likely exceed 2% YoY by June, and stay above those levels for the rest of 2021. We expect the S$NEER to trade at the top of its policy band (about 2% above this month's level) by 3Q 2021, and the official policy stance to be amended to "gradual appreciation of the the S$NEER" at the next policy announcement in October 2021. The effective tightening of monetary conditions will be negative for the equity market. Excessive property supply will exert downward pressure on residential and commercial property prices, hurting prospects for the property sector. We recommend being long the currency (SGD) but underweight Singapore equities on a 6-9 month view. The setback to the leadership transition (with Heng Swee Keat stepping down as PM-in-waiting) is a medium-term concern. But Lawrence Wong as FM, with PM Lee continuing for longer, ensures policy continuity that will underpin the near-term growth outlook.

Real GDP will likely grow 6.5% in 2021, pushing CPI inflation above 2%YoY by mid-year. The monetary stance will officially tighten (to "gradual appreciation of the S$NEER") in October 2021. Given excess supply of residential and commercial property, we expect downward pressure on property prices, and hence recommend being Underweight Singapore equities, but long the SGD. Manufacturing production grew 11.1% YoY in 1Q 2021 (much faster than the 7.5% estimate in the Advance Estimate of GDP announced on 14 April), so real GDP is likely to have grown at least 1.2% YoY in 1Q 2021. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 9.7% YoY in 1Q 2021, the strongest in the last 4 quarters. Helped by the low-base (-13.3% YoY in 2Q 2020), real GDP is likely to grow at least 12% YoY in 2Q 2020, and a further 6% YoY in 2H 2021 -- ensuring real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021, faster than the official forecast of "4 to 6%" growth this year. The unemployment rate has fallen to 2.9% in March 2021, above the average of the past decade, but below the levels that prevailed in 1998-2001, 2003-06 and 2009. With tourism-facing sectors unlikely to restore jobs, the effective "full employment" level for the rest of the economy is an unemployment rate of 2.5%, which will be reached by mid-2021. CPI inflation is already at 1.3%, the highest since May 2017, and will likely exceed 2% YoY by June, and stay above those levels for the rest of 2021. We expect the S$NEER to trade at the top of its policy band (about 2% above this month's level) by 3Q 2021, and the official policy stance to be amended to "gradual appreciation of the the S$NEER" at the next policy announcement in October 2021. The effective tightening of monetary conditions will be negative for the equity market. Excessive property supply will exert downward pressure on residential and commercial property prices, hurting prospects for the property sector. We recommend being long the currency (SGD) but underweight Singapore equities on a 6-9 month view. The setback to the leadership transition (with Heng Swee Keat stepping down as PM-in-waiting) is a medium-term concern. But Lawrence Wong as FM, with PM Lee continuing for longer, ensures policy continuity that will underpin the near-term growth outlook.  

Singapore's Strong Rebound Will Raise Inflation, Strengthening SGD in 2H 2021