Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The aluminum price could remain high this year, beyond just the output reduction from the conflict in the Middle East, with limitations on supply also from other regions </li>
<li>This could boost South32's EBITDA potentially beyond consensus, with a shift away from alumina and towards aluminum this year, given the yoy decline in the price of the former  </li>
<li>The low P/B at 1.5x leaves room for a rerating on a potential recovery from the weak ROE which justified the large discount to BHP and Rio in recent years</li>
</ul>


The aluminum price could remain high this year, beyond just the output reduction from the conflict in the Middle East, with limitations on supply also from other regions 
This could boost South32's EBITDA potentially beyond consensus, with a shift away from alumina and towards aluminum this year, given the yoy decline in the price of the former  
The low P/B at 1.5x leaves room for a rerating on a potential recovery from the weak ROE which justified the large discount to BHP and Rio in recent years


South32: Potential Aluminum Boost With Muted Valuation

South32 Ltd

South32: Potential Aluminum Boost With Muted Valuation