Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>South32 is an Australian metal and mining firm spun off from BHP in 2015. Unlike mining majors, South32 holds smaller but concentrated assets.</li>
<li>Aluminium operations is the firm’s primary revenue source followed by coking coal operations. Coking coal contributes to 32% of the underlying EBITDA.</li>
<li>With its share price having got battered, South32 stock is compellingly priced relative to MVR ETF paving way for a compelling long-short trade.</li>
</ul>


South32 is an Australian metal and mining firm spun off from BHP in 2015. Unlike mining majors, South32 holds smaller but concentrated assets.
Aluminium operations is the firm’s primary revenue source followed by coking coal operations. Coking coal contributes to 32% of the underlying EBITDA.
With its share price having got battered, South32 stock is compellingly priced relative to MVR ETF paving way for a compelling long-short trade.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/south32-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22654:1" rel="noopener">South32 Ltd (S32 AU)</a></strong> has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. </li>
<li>This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).</li>
<li>Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. </li>
</ul>


Since being spun out from BHP in 2015, South32 Ltd (S32 AU) has doggedly addressed its vast asset portfolio. 
This strategy has not been without issue, such as the US$1.3bn writedown in Hermosa base metals project (zinc, lead) earlier this year due to inflationary pressure from inputs (steel, cement).
Not unlike other major miners, commodities tethered to the energy transition form a key cornerstone of South32’s forward objective, potentially leading to coal asset divestment and further copper (lithium?) acquisitions. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in June.
The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are up to two intra-review changes possible between now and the June 2024 review which could triggered by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake (SLR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a> deals.</li>
<li>Separately, I see one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes for the regular rebalance in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
There are up to two intra-review changes possible between now and the June 2024 review which could triggered by the Silver Lake (SLR AU) and Boral (BLD AU) deals.
Separately, I see one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes for the regular rebalance in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

Australia

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

South32 Ltd (S32 AU)

Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?

Facilitating Energy Transition Strategy Along With Diversified Regional Exposure Makes South32 A Compelling Investment Proposition

Mint Finance

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

I would be LONG Codan (CDA AU) vs the ASX 200 index because I see that as the top potential replacement name for the next ASX 200 change.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Have South32 Shares Bottomed Out?

Facilitating Energy Transition Strategy Along With Diversified Regional Exposure Makes South32 A Compelling Investment Proposition

Mint Finance

Reshaping South32's Low-Carbon Footprint

Currently trading bang in line with its average trailing metrics; and marginally up on its forward metrics. I'd probably tilt positive here, but...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

Performance has been mixed across the various indices but could start moving the right way as we near the end of the review period and there is...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

I would be LONG Codan (CDA AU) vs the ASX 200 index because I see that as the top potential replacement name for the next ASX 200 change.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June