Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

South32: Q1/26 Output Down But Range of Pressures Priced In

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While South32 has declined substantially as the Middle East war premium for the aluminum price had dropped, the metal still faces supply constraints from China output limits </li>
<li>We already had relatively low aluminum average prices of US$3,000/tonne, and conservative estimates for South32's other metals, so our forecasts have not changed substantially</li>
<li>The considerable upside to our South32 valuation of 20% is broadly inline with consensus' 24%, contrasting with major downside for BHP and Rio Tinto   </li>
</ul>


While South32 has declined substantially as the Middle East war premium for the aluminum price had dropped, the metal still faces supply constraints from China output limits 
We already had relatively low aluminum average prices of US$3,000/tonne, and conservative estimates for South32's other metals, so our forecasts have not changed substantially
The considerable upside to our South32 valuation of 20% is broadly inline with consensus' 24%, contrasting with major downside for BHP and Rio Tinto   


South32: Value Beyond the Middle East Conflict Aluminum Premium

South32 Ltd

South32: Value Beyond the Middle East Conflict Aluminum Premium