Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Space X (SPCX US) 2Q-2026 Result: Record Revenue, Record CapEx — The Cult Has Lost Its Pricing Power

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.</li>
<li>SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.</li>
<li>Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.</li>
</ul>


Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.
SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.
Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.


Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

SpaceX

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety