Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2 revenue US$7.8bn (+92% YoY) beat consensus by 13%; Adj. EBITDA US$3.5bn (+191%); all three divisions ahead — the operations are not the issue.</li>
<li>Total CapEx of US$18.4bn in Q2 alone — US$15.8bn in AI — runs at a US$63bn annualised rate, 39% above consensus and well beyond our financial model.</li>
<li>
<strong>BEARISH</strong> stance maintained; with unchanged TP of US$42, probability-weighted SOTP across Space (US$40bn), Connectivity (US$252bn), and AI (US$130bn).</li>
</ul>


Q2 revenue US$7.8bn (+92% YoY) beat consensus by 13%; Adj. EBITDA US$3.5bn (+191%); all three divisions ahead — the operations are not the issue.
Total CapEx of US$18.4bn in Q2 alone — US$15.8bn in AI — runs at a US$63bn annualised rate, 39% above consensus and well beyond our financial model.

BEARISH stance maintained; with unchanged TP of US$42, probability-weighted SOTP across Space (US$40bn), Connectivity (US$252bn), and AI (US$130bn).


Space X (SPCX US) 2Q-2026 Result: Record Revenue, Record CapEx — The Cult Has Lost Its Pricing Power

SpaceX

Space X (SPCX US) 2Q-2026 Result: Record Revenue, Record CapEx — The Cult Has Lost Its Pricing Power