Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP US)

iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

S&P 500 INDEX

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services