European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

A Power Move: Naturgy Sparks a Strategic Rebalance

Naturgy Self-Tender: Arbitrage with Strategic Upside and Free-Float Catalyst

Naturgy: Auto-OPA Arbitrage Outcomes and Path to Index Reweighting

Naturgy Acquisition Talks: Diplomatic and Financial Hurdles Persist

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Naturgy plans a €2.5 billion share buyback at €26.5 per share, thus increasing free float and liquidity, potentially aiding index inclusion and attracting passive ETF investors.</li>
<li>The 2025-2027 strategic plan targets €6.4 billion investments, focusing on networks and renewables while maintaining EBITDA at €5.3 billion and net profit at €1.9 billion.</li>
<li>A rising dividend from €1.6 to €1.9/share by 2027, with a 100% payout ratio, provides a 7.4% 27e yield, supported by a 2.3x net debt/EBITDA, ensuring sustainability.</li>
</ul>


Naturgy plans a €2.5 billion share buyback at €26.5 per share, thus increasing free float and liquidity, potentially aiding index inclusion and attracting passive ETF investors.
The 2025-2027 strategic plan targets €6.4 billion investments, focusing on networks and renewables while maintaining EBITDA at €5.3 billion and net profit at €1.9 billion.
A rising dividend from €1.6 to €1.9/share by 2027, with a 100% payout ratio, provides a 7.4% 27e yield, supported by a 2.3x net debt/EBITDA, ensuring sustainability.


Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook

Naturgy Energy Group SA

Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook