Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Telecom Argentina: TMA Remedies Hit Business, Credit Holds

Telecom Argentina 2Q26: Stronger Credit, Upside Gets Selective

Telecom Argentina 4Q25: Results Support Credit Despite Integration Pressures

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

Telecom Argentina Prices US$600m 10Y Notes at 8.625%, Extending Maturities

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Strategic Implications: Neutral after rally. Telecom remains improving, but front-end spreads now price in EBITDA recovery, TMA margin convergence and refinancing gains.</li>
<li>
Risk Profile: Liquidity and TMA risk cap upside. Cash covers only about 0.7x short-term debt, with no committed RCF and unresolved regulatory risk.</li>
<li>
Bottom-Line Impact: Prefer the 2036s selectively. The notes offer the curve’s highest yield, wider Z-spread pickup, and a cleaner near-par dollar price.</li>
</ul>



Strategic Implications: Neutral after rally. Telecom remains improving, but front-end spreads now price in EBITDA recovery, TMA margin convergence and refinancing gains.

Risk Profile: Liquidity and TMA risk cap upside. Cash covers only about 0.7x short-term debt, with no committed RCF and unresolved regulatory risk.

Bottom-Line Impact: Prefer the 2036s selectively. The notes offer the curve’s highest yield, wider Z-spread pickup, and a cleaner near-par dollar price.


Telecom Argentina 1Q26: Credit Improves, Upside Narrows