Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Telecom Argentina 1Q26: Credit Improves, Upside Narrows

Telecom Argentina: TMA Remedies Hit Business, Credit Holds

Telecom Argentina 2Q26: Stronger Credit, Upside Gets Selective

Telecom 3Q25: Stronger Margins and a More Constructive Outlook

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

Telecom Argentina Prices US$600m 10Y Notes at 8.625%, Extending Maturities

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Enhanced Liquidity Profile: The January 2026 issuance of US$600 million in 10-year notes successfully refinanced acquisition debt and July 2026 maturities, significantly reducing immediate default and refinancing risks.</li>
<li>
Integration Margin Pressure: While revenue grew 54.2% YoY via the TMA acquisition, consolidated EBITDA margins contracted to 29.8% due to rising operating costs and non-linear synergy realization.</li>
<li>
Curve Optimization Strategy: Analysts favor the new 2036 notes for superior carry and "clean" par pricing, as shorter-dated 2031s and 2033s offer limited upside at current rich spread levels.</li>
</ul>



Enhanced Liquidity Profile: The January 2026 issuance of US$600 million in 10-year notes successfully refinanced acquisition debt and July 2026 maturities, significantly reducing immediate default and refinancing risks.

Integration Margin Pressure: While revenue grew 54.2% YoY via the TMA acquisition, consolidated EBITDA margins contracted to 29.8% due to rising operating costs and non-linear synergy realization.

Curve Optimization Strategy: Analysts favor the new 2036 notes for superior carry and "clean" par pricing, as shorter-dated 2031s and 2033s offer limited upside at current rich spread levels.


Telecom Argentina 4Q25: Results Support Credit Despite Integration Pressures